As the college football season approaches, the excitement is palpable, and one team that's generating significant buzz is BYU. With the release of ESPN FPI's preseason rankings and game probabilities, the Cougars are poised to make a strong showing in the upcoming season. But what does this mean for BYU's chances at a special season? Let's dive in and explore the FPI's projections and what they imply for the Cougars.
FPI's Predictions for BYU
FPI projects BYU to win 8.5 games to start the season, with a rating of 13.1. This is a slight dip from their 2025 season rating of 15.3, but still puts them in a favorable position. FPI favors BYU in 11 out of 12 games to start the season, with the only exception being the Notre Dame game. This is a significant development, as it suggests that BYU is expected to perform well against most of their opponents.
One thing that immediately stands out is the high probability of BYU winning against Utah Tech (99.0%), Arizona (73.8%), Colorado State (94.7%), and Iowa State (89.0%). These are all teams that BYU has a strong history against, and FPI's projections seem to confirm this. However, the Notre Dame game is a different story, with BYU only having a 24.0% chance of winning.
Odds of a Special Season
A "special season" is defined as 10 or more regular season wins, which would put BYU in contention for the Big 12 championship and potentially the College Football Playoff. Despite being favored in all but one game, FPI gives BYU just a 32.1% chance to win 10 games or more and a 1.3% chance to go undefeated. This is a surprising development, as it suggests that while BYU is expected to perform well, there is still a significant amount of uncertainty surrounding their chances of having a truly special season.
FPI Rankings
BYU ranks 20th in the initial FPI rankings, second in the Big 12 behind Texas Tech. This is a strong showing, but it also puts BYU in a challenging position, as they will be expected to perform well against some of the conference's top teams. BYU is scheduled to play two of the other four teams in the top five: Utah and Arizona. This is a significant test for the Cougars, and they will need to perform well against these teams to maintain their high ranking.
Conference Title Hopes
According to FPI, Texas Tech is the strong favorite to win the Big 12, with BYU in second place. This is a significant development, as it suggests that while BYU is expected to perform well, they may not be the favorite to win the conference title. However, FPI also gives BYU a 16.5% chance to win the league, which is a strong showing.
College Football Playoff Hopes
FPI gives BYU a 25.7% chance to make the College Football Playoff, which is the second best odds in the Big 12 behind Texas Tech. This is a significant development, as it suggests that BYU is expected to perform well and compete for a spot in the playoff. However, it also puts pressure on the team to perform at a high level throughout the season.
Personal Perspective
Personally, I think that BYU has a strong chance of having a special season, but there are still significant challenges ahead. The team will need to perform well against some of the conference's top teams, and they will need to manage the expectations that come with being a top-20 team. However, if BYU can stay focused and play to their strengths, I believe they have a real chance of achieving a successful season.
In my opinion, the FPI's projections for BYU are both exciting and challenging. While they suggest that BYU is expected to perform well, they also highlight the uncertainty surrounding their chances of having a truly special season. However, if BYU can stay focused and play to their strengths, I believe they have a real chance of achieving a successful season and making a significant impact in the Big 12.
